Wealth Management

Voted #6 on Top 100 Family Business influencer on Wealth, Legacy, Finance and Investments: Jacoline Loewen My Amazon Authors' page Twitter:@ jacolineloewen Linkedin: Jacoline Loewen Profile

August 27, 2009

Royal Bank's market scoop strategy worked

We have heard the market forecast from Ben Bernanke (who was nominated by President Obama to a second term as Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve). Bernancke's prediction is that the recession is over while the other sage of Wall Street, Nouriel Roubini, thinks we are headed for the double dipper recession model. One will be right and one will be wrong.

One indicator is to check out bank performance. Being in private equity, we hear which banks are lending on what terms to whom. Royal has been very smart to use this recession as a time to scoop up market share and get mediocre deals done. Customers remember that they were there in the tough times and are loyal back. TD was lending huge amounts to old, steady companies at great rates. National Bank takes on lots of deals that the others sniff at so we will see their performance over the next year or so. If there is a double dipper recession, that could be a problem for them

Here's more from ScotiaMcleod. Lynn Lewis sent me this by Gareth Watson, CFA

This morning as we heard from Royal Bank (RY), National Bank (NA) and TD Bank (TD). While I won't go into specifics for each bank, I will simply say that the earnings this morning were very good across the board. Royal in particular blew away the Street with strength in retail and wholesale. National Bank also exceeded expectations by having strong trading revenue again while TD Bank exceeded expectations by keeping credit in check. Coming into the quarter we knew that retail would be the wild card for the banks as wholesale strength was expected, and the results speak for themselves as retail operations have done well in a challenging operating environment (except for maybe CIBC). Capital levels are strong, if not too strong, and I hope this past quarter will finally put the dividend question to rest as earnings will support dividend payments going forward. Overall it should be a good day for the banks today and therefore possibly the TSX Index. However, I would caution that these banks have been running higher for a long time going into this quarter and that they were pricing in lofty expectations which have been met for the most part (except CIBC), so we don't think there's huge upside today as the market has probably already priced a lot of it in, but without a doubt the strength of the earnings this morning will give Royal, TD and National a good boost at the open.

August 24, 2009

What American private equity is really saying

I spent the weekend enjoying BBQs, watching fireworks with my family, including the in-laws (oh joy). Actually, I'm lucky in the in-law category as I enjoy them all but I did notice that my Private Equity Fund Manager brother-on-law who works in Boston, USA, looks ten years older than the last time he visited. When I asked him how the US markets were doing, I was expecting him to give a repeat of the media – recession over, blah, blah. Instead, I was disturbed to hear him say that he was seeing private companies going out of business at an alarming rate.

Apparently, banks are not lending money which is the same as the body deciding to stop creating blood. Then there is also the freeze in consumer spending which continues despite the government softly whispering to frightened horses, “It’s OK to go out and use those credit cards.”

My brother-in-law’s doom and gloom report from small business America does confirm reports I have heard from large family owned Canadian companies. One Canadian CFO reported that he had attended a conference in the US and was shocked to learn that American family owned companies, and we are talking blue chip companies, were getting money at 18% line of credit and they thought that was terrific.

This is the reason why Canadian private equity is looking south and doing more deals there than in Canada where banks are still lending at 3% to this particular family business.

When the small to mid-sized companies start closing down, this is a disaster. The bulk of jobs are in the SME market

The key is for government to focus some of their stimulus tax breaks and cash flow breaks on small business balance sheets. Here in Canada, the Ontario opposition leadership race looked at GST tax equalization but a better one would be to reduce tax on new equipment purchases. Any other suggestions?

Jacoline Loewen is the author of Money Magnet and consults to companies wanting private equity and growth strategy.

Shhh...Don't tell the Americans

An investment strategist who travels the world advising fund managers where to put their clients money was told by his company to censor his presentation for their American market. The London Head Office felt that American finance experts would not appreciate hearing about the decline of American markets. I used to work for his bank and they were not shrinking violets when it came to telling the brutal facts so this hesitancy to tell the truth just because the clients will not like what they hear and have deep pockets is a radically new policy.

Having lived through the last century, I lived through lights on the British Empire. Denial is the common reaction. Watch this season of Mad Men to see the British in full steam, eyes closed mode as they take over a New York agency and the Americans tell them “We are the future, not Britain.” Well, now Americans are in the same situation.

Smart investors will put aside their patriotism and figure out how to get on with things.

August 16, 2009

Twelve Myths of Sustainability

The sound of profits sucking out of the balance sheet is a common one and the temptation is to go wild trying to build a better business. Hold on. Some of your ideas may be drastically wrong. So, I thought it would be a great time for a book summary from my favourite management philosophers, James C. Collins and Jerry I. Porras.

They did a six-year research study, and examined what it takes to "create and achieve long-lasting greatness as a visionary corporation". The findings were summarized in their early and more text like book Built To Last. The research produced surprising results for the authors, exposing at least twelve commonly held businesses myths:

MYTH 1. It takes a great idea to start a company.

Few visionary companies started with a great idea. Many companies started without any specific ideas (HP and Sony) and others were outright failures (3M). In fact, a great idea may lead to road of not being able to adapt.

MYTH 2. Visionary companies require great and charismatic visionary leaders.

A charismatic leader in not required and, in fact, can be detrimental to a company's long-term prospects.

MYTH 3. The most successful companies exist primarily to maximize profits.

Not true. Profit counts, but is usually not at the top of the list.

MYTH 4. Blueprint for Core Values

Visionary companies share a common subset of "correct" core values.

They all have core values, but each is unique to a company and it's culture.

MYTH 5. The only constant is change.

The core values can and often do last more then 100 years.

MYTH 6. Blue-chip companies play it safe.

They take significant ‘bet the company’ risks.

MYTH 7. Visionary companies are great places to work, for everyone.

These companies are only great places to work if you fit the vision and culture.

MYTH 8. Highly successful companies make some of their best moves by brilliant and complex strategic planning.

They actually try a bunch of stuff and keep what works.

MYTH 9. Companies should hire outside CEOs to stimulate fundamental change.

Most successful organisations have had their change agents come from within the system.

MYTH 10. The most successful companies focus primarily on beating the competition.

They focus on beating themselves.

MYTH 11. You cannot have your cake and eat it too.

Decisions do not have to either or, but can be both.

MYTH 12. Companies become visionary primarily through "vision statements".

Vision is not a statement it is the way you do business.

August 15, 2009

Why most innovation never gets off the shelf

It never fails to amaze me how difficult it is to get innovations actually done in larger organizations. There are root causes common to many of my clients, and I have observed that so often it comes to the day-to-day nature of communication.

To be fair, the conversations to get innovations of the shelf and onto the company's list of things to do are difficult for many companies. Michael Beer (great name, even better guru of organizations) says that most organizations won't change unless the leadership has the courage to initiate the measures necessary to do so. Here is a summary of how to ensure innovation happens by Michael Beer:

Ways to make your company bring up its innovation game

We've discovered that standard initiatives such as employee surveys, interviews by external consultants, and even relatively straightforward, one-on-one conversations between managers and the CEO don't usually help an organization shift toward greater candor. Primarily that's because employees don't believe that management, particularly the CEO, will actually listen and act on their comments.

Often, such initiatives have a negative effect on the company, fostering cynicism. In one multinational company we studied, a task force of valued managers, when asked by senior management to conduct and analyze a worldwide employee survey, refused to do so. They simply did not want to be associated with what they perceived would be yet another useless exercise. At the same time, top management honestly believed that past initiatives they had instituted were the result of past feedback.

Creating organization-wide conversations is a crucial task of leadership—but often a very difficult one. We've developed a four-point process for fostering such conversations:

1. Advocate, inquire, repeat
A conversation that surfaces the unvarnished truth about an organization's innovation strategy needs to move back and forth between advocacy and inquiry. CEOs and senior leaders need not only to defend their initiative but also to find out what others think, up front. Indeed, the two activities should be closely linked.

Innovation initiatives tend to fall apart right from the start when top management advocates for a specific project and then begins to implement it without discussing it with key team members and partners in other parts of the organization. This inevitably leads to management later discovering that employees had legitimate concerns about the project that they never felt free to voice.

Some managers err in the opposite direction. They don't advocate at all, opting instead to simply inquire. So they assemble a large team of trusted employees and ask for a consensus on direction. This just leads to frustration and, often, stagnation.

It's the leader's job to point managers and team members in a specific direction but to make sure it's a direction they can respond to. To effect innovation, a leader must advocate, then inquire, and continue to repeat these actions as necessary.

2. Cut to the chase
Energizing an initiative requires that the conversations about it focus on only the most significant factors facing the organization—the company's ability to carry out the initiative and any obstacles to performance. All too often, leaders become mired in mundane business details and lose sight of the issues that will guarantee overall success. Leaders must ask themselves, "Do we have a coherent and distinctive innovation strategy that key managers believe in? Do we have the capabilities to execute? Is our leadership effective?"

When Ludwig implemented a strategic fitness process at DIS, he focused on the most important issues: the division's overall strategy and the barriers to innovation. Through honest conversations, he quickly learned about the real cause of DIS's inability to get its new products to market. The division had a hierarchical culture that dated back to the original owners of the business, which had been acquired by Becton Dickinson several years earlier. The various departments, accustomed to being directed from the top, were unable to cooperate effectively, and therefore the project organization strategy intended to speed innovation had failed.

DIS's open conversation about the issues that really mattered clarified the company's strategy and energized the organization. As Ludwig says, "Getting feedback from the employees was indispensable, and putting it into a strategic context is important. We discussed… strategic issues, such as delivering the goods and services to our customers more effectively than our competitors. Once we decided it was strategic, we had to fix it or suffer the consequences; and no one was willing to suffer the consequences of gradual loss of competitive position." Soon after these candid conversations took root, DIS regained leadership in its market. "The process got things on the table quickly," Ludwig says.

3. Be open and inclusive
Fundamental business innovations almost always require changing the worldview and the behaviors of a whole set of interdependent players—the CEO, the senior leadership team, and managers down the line. This won't happen without a collective, public conversation. Several levels of management across important functions and value-chain activities must be part of the conversation, and leaders need to keep everyone three to four levels below them informed about what they've learned, and what changes they're planning.

This collective, public conversation was critical when sales managers at Mattel Canada were trying to initiate a different kind of innovation: introducing a new sales channel. Due to the cyclical, hit-driven nature of the toy industry, excess inventory was a perennial problem for the company. The inventory could be sold off only via heavy discounting, which tended to depress margins for all sales.

Since the warehouse was close to a major Canadian city, a group of employees proposed adding an outlet store to their warehouse. Several managers praised this as an excellent idea, but it was never implemented. It was apparent that conflicts between the sales department and the distribution department were to blame—but no one was willing to confront the conflicts openly.

Mattel Canada finally and successfully implemented its toy outlet innovation only after sales, distribution, and the other departments had an open, fact-based discussion of their issues. At that point, they realized that the outlet store would benefit all of them. Sales could maintain better margins by avoiding discounting, distribution could save time by not having to shift around old inventory, and finance would be able to free up capital that had been tied up in inventory. Mattel Canada used collective conversations so effectively that it transformed its division from Mattel's least profitable international subsidiary to its most profitable.

4. Strive for honesty alongside low risk
In most of the companies we've studied, managers discussed innovation-related problems with the few people they trusted but acted on their findings in more public venues. Since most managers fear that being honest would hurt their careers or even endanger their jobs, they are naturally reluctant to speak candidly. Plus, many managers worry that candor would only make leadership so defensive that the conversation would not lead to change. By encouraging honesty, then rewarding it, leaders can demonstrate to all levels of the organization that candor is valued. Once a leader is able to address the real issues facing innovation, issues that could only have been unearthed through truthful give-and-take can be rapidly and effectively addressed. With an increase in profitability comes a side benefit: employee morale will also improve dramatically.

It's surprising how few corporate leaders make a genuine effort to foster candor within their companies. Sadly, they lose any chance at building organizations in which speed and transparency contribute to the vitality of their enterprise. Adopting the process we have outlined here is a critical first step in creating an agile enterprise that can drive rapid innovation and compete on a global scale.